Health workforce modelling, Northern Territory, 2006-2022

Abstract

The Northern Territory (NT) medical workforce model and the NT nursing workforce model project the requirement for, and supply of, medical practitioners and registered nurses and midwives (nurses) from 2006 to 2022. The models were produced as part of the Health Workforce Modelling Project established by the Strategic Workforce Committee of the Department of Health and Families (DHF) to inform workforce planning by projecting future numbers of health professionals in the NT. Three reports have been produced under the project. This report presents projections from the medical and nursing models and discusses key issues identified by the modelling. The two other reports provide a technical description and more detail on the outputs from the models. This report is structured as follows: first, the approach for modelling the NT health workforce is discussed. Second, the data parameters of the model are outlined and issues with current data sources noted. Third, baseline projections of demand and supply are presented for the medical and nursing workforces and key influences on the projections discussed. Pressure points with regard to specialty, subgroups within the population and regional areas are then investigated and the level of the current NT health workforce compared with the national average. Finally, the implications of the modelling are discussed and summarised.