Territory Stories

Budget Paper No.2 Fiscal and Economic Outlook 2008-2009



Budget Paper No.2 Fiscal and Economic Outlook 2008-2009

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Tabled paper 1293


Tabled papers for 10th Assembly 2005 - 2008; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT




Tabled By Delia Lawrie


Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.




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81 Other contributors to the higher level of mineral and energy production in 2008-09 will be significant increases in lead-zinc production with the completion of the conversion to open cut operations at McArthur River, further increases in the production of alumina from Alcan, and iron ore from the Frances Creek mine. The contribution of manganese production is also forecast to increase very substantially in 2008-09, on the back of significant price increases. Table 7.1 shows growth in key economic indicators reported from 2003-04 through to 2008-09. 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08e 2008-09f % % % % % % Real GSP 2.0 5.5 5.5 5.6 2.8 6.6 Resident Employment - 2.9 - 1.3 3.0 5.3 4.8 2.5 Population1 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.9 Darwin CPI2 2.1 1.6 2.6 4.4 3.43 3.1 e: estimate; f: forecast 1 As at December, annual percentage change 2 As at December, year on year percentage change 3 Actual Darwin CPI 2007 State Final Demand Territory SFD is forecast to decrease by 0.4 per cent in 2008-09, due to the continued significant decline in total investment expenditure as major projects are completed. In addition, growth of both household and public sector consumption expenditure is forecast to moderate in 2008-09. The more modest contribution of total consumption expenditure in 2008-09 is not sufficient to offset the decline in total investment expenditure, resulting in the forecast decrease in SFD. Population Population growth is forecast to moderate to 1.9 per cent in 2008, with net interstate migration returning towards longer run averages due to the completion of some major employment generating projects. Labour Force Resident employment growth of 2.5 per cent is forecast for 2008-09, underpinned by residential construction and work on resource projects and continued migration and tourism growth. The more modest growth rate forecast for 2008-09 is in line with the forecast moderation in SFD growth over the same period. Despite strong labour demand associated with high levels of construction activity and strong economic conditions, growth in employment may be partially constrained by limited availability of skilled labour. The ability of Territory employers to attract and retain suitable skilled workers will continue to be a critical factor in determining employment growth in the Territory. Prices and Wages Inflation in the Territory is expected to continue to moderate in 2009, returning to the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) target band of 2 to 3 per cent. Darwin CPI growth of 2.8 per cent is forecast for 2009. Table 7.1: Growth in Key Territory Indicators, 200304 to 200809

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