Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy
Tabled paper 295
Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT
Tabled by David Tollner
Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
Department of the Treasury and Finance
Economic Growth 19 Northern Territory Economy Economic Growth The Northern Territory has a relatively small, open economy that is heavily influenced by international trade and major projects. Therefore, the Territorys economic growth can be volatile from year to year. Gross state product per capita in the Territory is the third highest among the jurisdictions, at $78 292 compared with $63 754 nationally. Economic growth in the Territory is estimated to have increased from 4.4per cent in 2011-12 to 4.6 percent in 2012-13. Growth in private sector construction activity related to major projects and household consumption are expected to be partly offset by increased imports, primarily related to the importation of the Montara Venture facility at the Montara oilfields and machinery and equipment for major projects and declining public demand. The Territory Governments capital works program is expected to retreat from record counter-cyclical highs balanced by the strong growth in private sector investment. In 2013-14, economic growth in the Territory is forecast to increase by 5.0percent to $19.9billion, driven predominantly by accelerating activity at the INPEX and Total joint venture Ichthys project, strengthening household consumption and residential construction activity. Economic growth in the Territory is forecast to increase by 7.0percent in 2014-15, driven by record levels of engineering work coinciding with peak construction activity at the Ichthys project, strengthening household consumption associated with population and residential construction growth, as well as investment in new machinery and equipment relating to major projects. Economic growth in the Territory is forecast to moderate to 4.5percent in 2015-16, as construction activity declines due to the conclusion of major projects, before moderating further to 3.9percent in 2016-17. Growth in 2016-17 is expected to be underpinned by the commencement of liquefied natural gas exports from the newly built Ichthys plant at Blaydin Point, while construction activity is forecast to decline to long-term trend levels. Nonetheless, economic growth is expected to remain buoyant. 2010-112011-12 2012-13e 2013-14f 2014-15f 2015-16f 2016-17f % % % % % % % Northern Territory1 Gross state product 1.2 4.4 4.6 5.0 7.0 4.5 3.9 State final demand 0.4 14.6 25.9 - 15.3 - 7.6 - 4.2 - 3.7 Australia Gross domestic product 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 Domestic final demand 3.6 6.1 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.4 3.0 e: estimate; f: forecast 1 Inflation adjusted, base year 2010-11 Source: Department of Treasury and Finance; ABS Cat. No. 5220.0; Deloitte Access Economics Chapter 2 Key points
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