Territory Stories

Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy



Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy

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Tabled paper 295


Tabled Papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled Papers; ParliamentNT




Tabled by David Tollner


Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.




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Department of the Treasury and Finance

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Overview 3 Northern Territory Economy Overview The Northern Territory has a relatively small, open economy that is heavily influenced by international trade and major projects. The Territory economy is sensitive to external shocks and the economic performance of major trading partners, resulting in volatile economic growth patterns. The structure of the Territory economy is markedly different to other Australian jurisdictions. The Territory has a large mining sector, which reflects an abundance of natural resources, a large public sector and a significant defence presence. After rebounding by 4.4percent in 2011-12, growth in the Territorys gross state product (GSP) is forecast to continue strengthening to 2014-15 driven primarily by the development of a number of major projects in the mining sector. This is expected to underpin strengthening employment, population and wages growth over this period. Economic growth in the Territory is forecast to slow in 2015-16 and 2016-17 as major projects are completed and the economy returns to growing at long-term trend levels. As major projects are completed, the export sector is forecast to underpin economic growth in the outer years. Northern Territory 2011-12 2012-13e 2013-14f 2014-15f 2015-16f 2016-17f % % % % % % GSP1 4.4 4.6 5.0 7.0 4.5 3.9 SFD1 14.6 25.9 - 15.3 - 7.6 - 4.2 - 3.7 Employment 1.4 2.0 3.0 4.5 1.5 0.5 Unemployment rate2 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.5 Population3 0.8 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.0 Consumer price index4 2.8 2.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 Wage price index 3.7 3.3 3.4 4.0 3.4 2.8 Exports1 - 0.7 17.9 18.5 - 2.2 4.1 81.7 Imports1 2.1 36.0 0.5 34.1 - 28.6 - 22.3 e: estimate; f: forecast; SFD: state final demand 1 Year ended June, year-on-year percentage change, inflation adjusted 2 Year average 3 As at December, annual percentage change 4 As at December, year-on-year percentage change Source: Department of Treasury and Finance; ABS Cat. Nos 5220.0, 6202.0, 3101.0, 6401.0 The Economy: 2012-13 Economic growth in the Territory is estimated to have strengthened from 4.4percent in 2011-12 to 4.6per cent in 2012-13 primarily driven by a rebound in household consumption expenditure and strong growth in private investment. Private investment expenditure in the Territory has been driven by progress payments related to the development of the onshore components of the INPEX and Total joint venture Ichthys project but also includes works related to the development of the Montaraoilfields, the Darwin Correctional Precinct, and expansion activity Key points Gross State Product