Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy
Tabled paper 295
Tabled Papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled Papers; ParliamentNT
Tabled by David Tollner
Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
Department of the Treasury and Finance
26 Economic Growth 2013-14 Budget In 2016-17, the Territorys international trade surplus is expected to increase significantly due to the commencement of LNG production and exports from the Ichthys project along with increased alumina production from the PacificAluminium refinery. However, this is expected to be offset by the feedstock gas imported from Western Australia to manufacture LNG reported in the balancing item of GSP. A fall in international imports of machinery and equipment due to the completion of several major projects, along with bunker oil imports being out of the data for a full year, are also expected to add to the trade surplus. e: estimate; f: forecast 1 Inflation adjusted Source: ABS Cat. No. 5220.0; Department of Treasury and Finance Risks to the Outlook There are several risks to the Territorys economic growth outlook. The combination of a very large resource project, relatively high exchange rate and credit constraints, means that growth will be uneven across sectors of the economy. Strong growth will be reported in the construction industry, providing the infrastructure for future growth in mining and manufacturing. Tourism and other sectors exposed to the external environment will face continuing challenges. Risks include: the level of the Australian dollar relative to the currencies of key trading partners and source markets; timing related to progress payments for the Ichthys project; skills shortages in businesses not directly involved in major projects; timing lags between when actual capital expenditure takes place by private companies and when they are reported to the ABS, and therefore included in official economic statistics; the complexities around measuring the interstate trade flows associated with major projects, which are reported by the ABS in the balancing item of GSP; estimates and forecast include only committed projects. Going forward, there is an upside risk should a range of projects within the Territory receive approval/financing including Western Deserts Roper Bar Project, Sherwin Irons Roper River Iron Ore Project, the CasuarinaSquare expansion and Palmerston Gateway development; Chart 2.2: Territory GSP and SFD1 (yearonyear percentage change) -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13e 14f 15f 16f 17f % Year ended June SFD GSP