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Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy



Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy

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Tabled paper 295


Tabled Papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled Papers; ParliamentNT




Tabled by David Tollner


Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.




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32 External Economic Environment 2013-14 Budget Global Economy The estimates and forecasts used in this chapter are sourced from the International Monetary Funds (IMF) April 2013 World Economic Outlook. Unless otherwise noted, data in this chapter is presented on a calendaryear basis in line with the IMF data. The IMF estimates that global economic growth moderated from 4.0percent in 2011 to 3.2percent in 2012, mainly due to weakness in advanced economies such as Japan and the EU and slowing economic growth in key emerging markets such as China and India. Partly supporting global economic growth was the recovery in the US economy, which strengthened over 2012 despite considerable uncertainty relating to government spending and taxation policies. The IMF forecasts global economic growth to strengthen to 3.3percent in 2013 and to 4.0percent in 2014. Growth is expected to be underpinned by strengthening economic activity in emerging and developing economies, particularly China, and supported by a strengthening US economy as housing markets recover and monetary policy settings by the Federal Reserve Bank remain at expansionary levels. Economic activity in the EU is expected to stabilise in the second half of 2013 and grow modestly, reflecting the effect of accommodative monetary policies. Between 2013 and 2016, the IMF estimates that global economic growth will return to longterm trend levels of around 4.0percent, largely driven by emerging economies including China and India, where strengthening economic activity is expected to support export growth, employment and consumption in the global economy. GDP: gross domestic product; f: forecast 1 Inflation adjusted Source: IMF Japan is currently the Territorys largest trading partner for the exports of goods (see Chapter 8: International Trade) and the fourth largest source market for tourism. In 2012, $3.0billion worth of goods (mainly LNG from the ConocoPhillips Darwin LNG plant) was exported to Japan while $169million worth of Japanese goods (mainly petroleum products and motor vehicles) were imported to the Territory. Chart 3.1: International Monetary Fund GDP Forecasts1 (yearonyear percentage change) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13f 14f 15f 16f Australia China European Union Japan United States Global % Calendar year Japan