Territory Stories

Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy



Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy

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Tabled paper 295


Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT




Tabled by David Tollner


Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.




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Department of the Treasury and Finance

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Population 39 Northern Territory Economy As a result, the Territorys share of the total Australian population increased slightly from 1.02percent to 1.04percent. Population Growth The preliminary ERP for the Territory for 30June2012 is 234836people, a 1.5percent increase from 30June2011, and represents a substantially higher growth rate than the previous corresponding period. Growth in 201112 was slightly lower than national growth of 1.6percent. Intercensal Discrepancy and Revisions to Historical Population Estimates Following the 2011 Census The 2011 intercensal discrepancy is the difference between the ERP for 30June2011 based on the 2011Census and the ERP for the same date based on the 2006Census, adjusted for the components of population change (namely births, deaths and migration) in the period between June2006 and June2011. The preliminary ERP for the Territory at 30June2011 of 231331 created an intercensaldiscrepancy of an additional 962people. That is, the ERPestimate based on the 2011Census is higher than the estimate based on the 2006 Census. At the national level the 2011 intercensal discrepancy showed a very different pattern to the Territory. The preliminary ERP at 30June2011 for Australia was 22323933, which created an intercensaldiscrepancy of 294361 fewer people. This is in the opposite direction to the Territorys intercensal discrepancy and much larger than for any previous census. The ABS believes that the reduction in the 2011ERP in the more populousstates is largely due to errors associated with estimating the 2006ERP rather than errors in the flows between censuses (births, deaths and migration). Every fiveyears ABS demographers rebase ERP, to take advantage of information from the most recent census. Prior to the 2011 Census, as part of the fiveyearly rebasing, it had been ABS standard practice to also make adjustments to the historical ERPs only for the years between the preceding and latest census. This took account of the intercensal discrepancy and acknowledged the superior accuracy of censusyear ERPs over those of intercensal years, which must rely on estimates of births, deaths and migration since the last census. Because of extraordinary changes in the 2011estimates of national undercount, attributed by ABS to enhancements made to the 2011PES, the 2011 national intercensal discrepancy is considered by ABS to be too large for the usual historical revisions to be made. As a consequence, ABShas announced that as part of the final rebasing after the 2011Census to be released later in 2013, changes will be made to 20years of historical ERPs rather than just the usual fiveyears back to the last census year. All statistical uses of population data over the past 20years may therefore need revision in light of the revised estimates.

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