Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy
Tabled paper 295
Tabled Papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled Papers; ParliamentNT
Tabled by David Tollner
Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
Department of the Treasury and Finance
46 Population 2013-14 Budget Changes to the 2011 Census and Post Enumeration Survey Relevant to Indigenous Population Estimates ABSs preliminary Indigenous ERP for 30June2011 for Australia is much larger than the final Indigenous ERP for 2006. The difference is larger than expected by natural increase. By contrast, for the Territory, the 2011Indigenous ERP is just a few percentage points larger than that for 2006and barely accounts for expected natural increase (Table4.4). Table 4.4: Indigenous ERPs 2006 and 2011 (as at 30 June) ERP Northern Territory Rest of Australia Australia Final 2006 64 005 453 038 517 043 Preliminary 2011 68 901 600 835 669 736 % increase 7.6 32.6 29.5 Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 Such increases make it difficult to interpret changes in Indigenous rates statistics and thus make it impossible to measure the Territorys progress in addressing Indigenous disadvantage relative to other jurisdictions. At the national level, the large increase in the Indigenous ERP between the two census years comes about in part because of increases in the Indigenous census counts between 2006 and 2011, and in part because of a much higher ABS estimate of Indigenous undercount in 2011 compared with 2006. Table 4.5: Indigenous Counts and Undercount Estimates at the National Level (censusdate) Census Year Census Count Undercount Estimate ERP (Census Date) 2006 454 799 59 178 513 977 2011 548 147 114 188 662 335 Increase 93 348 55 010 148 358 % contribution to ERP increase 63% 37% 100% Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 Table 4.5 indicates that slightly under twothirds of the increased ERP between 2006 and 2011 was due to higher 2011 Census counts of Indigenous people. Table4.5 also demonstrates well over onethird of the increase in Indigenous ERP at the national level is directly attributable to the fact that the estimate of undercount was substantially larger in 2011 than in 2006. ABS internal analysis shows that the reasons for this increase are twoquite obscure technical differences between 2006 and 2011. The first concerns slight differences between the two census years in the recording of inconsistent Indigenous status in census and PES records (less than 1 per cent of the total PES sample). The second concerns differences between the two census years in the number of Indigenous people estimated by ABS to be living in dwellings for which no contact was made during the census and for which census records were imputed.