Territory Stories

Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy



Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy

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Tabled paper 295


Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT




Tabled by David Tollner


Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.




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Department of the Treasury and Finance

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48 Population 2013-14 Budget Regiment movements of Australian defence personnel are expected to remain stable in the near term. This follows the decline in defence personnel as a result of relocation of the 7RAR from Darwin to SouthAustralia in 2010and 2011. In addition, the proposed increased deployment of USMarines in the Territory is expected to have minimal impact on shortterm resident population growth. This is largely due to the shortterm rotational basis on which US Marines are deployed in the Territory making them ineligible for inclusion in resident population estimates. The estimate of annual population growth for 2013 has been revised downward from 2.2percent in the 201213MiniBudget to 2.0percent to reflect the anticipated impact of the Territory Governments fiscal consolidation measures on the Territorys population. Population growth in 2014and 2015 is largely driven by anticipated labour requirements for the construction phase of the Ichthys project, which are expected to peak over this period. Population growth of 1.0percent forecast in 2016 is consistent with numbers of the Ichthys project workforce and dependants and associated migrants leaving the Territory in 2016, such that population growth returns to its base level of growth. Measurement The small size of the Territorys population and the unprecedented nature of project development in the short to medium term means that current systems may not fully capture movements in the variables that they measure. For example, the counting of construction workers who move to the Territory for one or two years may not be entirely captured by Medicare data, which is used to measure interstate migration. While the true size of the population can never be completely known, substantial differences between the true and measured population would present a risk to the forecasts. Budget 201314 population estimates and forecasts are based on preliminary 2012 ERPs, rebased on the 2011Census. It is expected that the ABS will finalise the 2011 estimates later in 2013, which may impact population levels implied by the forecasts. Although the standard finalisation of the 2011 ERPs, as has occurred in the past, is unlikely to have an impact on the forecast growth rates, the forecasts may be impacted by revisions to the longer time series of historical ERPs as indicated by the ABS. This may impact underlying population growth assumptions made in the forecasts. For every 1000 people (net) added to (or subtracted from) the population, 0.4percentagepoints is added to (or subtracted from) population growth. Component Growth Natural increase, which is the largest contributor to the Territorys population growth, is a stable source of growth. The most recent TFR, which is very high, does present some upward risk if it were to prove to be an enduring change in the Territorys fertility rates. However, natural increase would not usually be expected to change substantially over the medium term covered by the forecast period. Forecasts Risks to the Forecasts

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