Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy
Tabled paper 295
Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT
Tabled by David Tollner
Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
Department of the Treasury and Finance
Population 49 Northern Territory Economy Changes in population growth in the Territory are driven primarily by migration, with overseas migration historically a relatively stable contributor to growth and interstate migration being far more volatile. The greatest risks to the forecasts are therefore likely to manifest as higher or lower levels of net migration than that implied by the assumptions underpinning the forecasts. Historical evidence suggests that migration has not been a substantial driver of Indigenous population growth in the Territory, which is largely determined by natural increase. While 2011 Census data suggests greater levels of migration among Indigenous people than the 2006 Census, these migration patterns are not necessarily linked to employment or economic opportunities in the Territory. The risks to migration are therefore related to interstate and overseas migration in the Territorys nonIndigenous population. Direct Project Impacts Key risks to the forecasts include differences in the duration of the Ichthysproject construction period, as well as the size and place of residence of the labour force. Substantial differences in the build up and winding down of the construction workforce would impact the forecasts. Differences in the composition of the workforce, primarily the proportion of migrant labour who would become residents and would therefore be counted in the population and FIFOs who tend not to be counted in the population, would also have an impact of the forecasts. Indirect Project Impacts The forecasts would also be at risk if the Ichthysproject had a substantially different impact on the broader population (such as population growth driven by the services sectors) than the ConocoPhillips project. Such differences could be caused by different economic, business or regulatory circumstances at different points in time. New Projects Future projects that have not specifically been taken into account in the forecasts, provide potential upside risk to the forecasts.
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