Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy
Tabled paper 295
Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT
Tabled by David Tollner
Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
Department of the Treasury and Finance
50 Population 2013-14 Budget Appendix 1: Population Projections Longterm population projections are published by the Territory Government to provide insights into the future growth of populations and are a useful tool for longterm planning and resource allocation. Population projections for the Territory are produced using a projections model (NTPOP) developed by the Territory Government in partnership with CharlesDarwinUniversity. Projections are made using the cohort component method. The assumptions used are based on longterm historical averages, which are used to inform the future direction and levels of fertility, mortality and migration. Assumptions are regularly updated as new ABS data becomes available. The most recent update is based on ABS ERPs derived from the 2011Census of Population and Housing. Population projections should not be interpreted as accurate forecasts or predictions and are not reflective of future changes in government policy and/or the life cycle of major construction and resource projects. Chart4.3 illustrates the historical components of population change (natural increase, overseas and interstate migration), which have been used to formulate the assumptions (estimates). It also illustrates the assumptions that have been used for each component to generate population growth projections over the projection period (projections). Source: Northern Territory Government Population Projections Interim Update (2013 Release) The Territorys population is projected to grow to 345000 by 2041, equivalent to an annualaveragegrowthrate of 1.3percent. Growth is projected to moderate over the 30year period reflecting the assumptions of constant annual net interstate and overseasmigration and a declining fertility rate. The Territorys Indigenous population is projected to increase to 100000by 2041, mainly through natural increase, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 1.3percent, slightly below the average annual growth rate for the nonIndigenous population of 1.4percent. Growth in the nonIndigenous population reflects the addition of overseas migrants (NOM in the nonIndigenous population is assumed at around 1300 from 201213 onwards), partially offset by losses to NIM. Chart 4.3: Territory Components of Growth, Historical Estimates, 1986-2011, and Assumptions Underlying the Projections, 2011-41 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Estimates Projections Natural increase Net overseas migration Net interstate migration Total growth Year ended June Number (000) NTG Population Projections
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