Territory Stories

Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy



Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy

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Tabled paper 295


Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT




Tabled by David Tollner


Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.




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Department of the Treasury and Finance

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Population 51 Northern Territory Economy By varying the input assumptions in the projections model, projections can be used in a number of ways, such as to demonstrate the consequences of increased migration driven by large projects or the consequences of closing the gap between Indigenous and nonIndigenous populations on the size, age and gender structure of the overall population. The following is an example of how projections can be used to demonstrate the consequences for the age structure of an ageing population. Example of Possible Uses of Projections: Ageing in the Indigenous Population As in the global population, the Territorys Indigenous population is ageing. Between the 2006 and 2011 censuses, there was a 7.7percent increase in the proportion of Indigenouspeople aged 65years and over in the Territory, which was, however, less than the national average of 9.7percent. Within a period of 30 years, assuming a continuation of population trends over the last decade, the proportion of the Territorys Indigenous population over 65years is projected to almost triple from 3.1percent in 2011 to 10.1percent in 2041. Over the same period, the proportion of nonIndigenous Territorians is expected to increase at a slower pace, from 6.6percent in 2011 to 9.6percent in 2041. Consequently, over a 30year period, the Territory is expected to have more older Indigenous people than nonIndigenous people, as a proportion of these respective populations (Chart 4.4). It is projected that the impact of ageing will be similar across the Territorys Indigenous population, with a similar proportion of older IndigenousTerritorians living in both the Greater Darwin region and the balance of the Territory. Source: ABS. Cat. No. 3101.0; Northern Territory Population Projections, Interim Update (2013Release) A greater proportion of older (65years and over) Indigenous than nonIndigenous Territorians was last observed around 20years ago, and was probably associated with the large proportion of young nonIndigenous people who had arrived in the Territory after Cyclone Tracy. Older nonIndigenous Territorians who had left in the immediate aftermath of Cyclone Tracy would have had little reason to return, thus further reducing the age profile of the Territorys nonIndigenous population. Possible Uses of Projections Chart 4.4: Population 65 and Over as a Percentage of Total Population Estimates, 1991-2041 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Non-Indigenous Northern Territory Indigenous Northern Territory* % of population Projections Estimates

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