Budget 2013/14 Northern Territory Economy
Tabled paper 295
Tabled papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled papers; ParliamentNT
Tabled by David Tollner
Made available by the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory under Standing Order 240. Where copyright subsists with a third party it remains with the original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
Department of the Treasury and Finance
Prices 75 Northern Territory Economy Historically, movements in the Australian dollar have closely mirrored movements in commodity prices. As such, high commodity prices tend to be consistent with a strong Australian dollar. Although prices remained at historically high levels, most commodity prices were volatile in 2012 due to concerns about weakness in the global economy. Crude oil prices were volatile through the year, trading in a range between A$105.14 and A$126.48 per barrel. However, average crude oil prices were relatively stable in 2012 compared with 2011, attributed by the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) to higher supply of oil globally and moderating Chinese demand in 2012. BREE forecasts the price of crude oil to decline marginally in 2013 (Table 1). Fuel Prices The price of crude oil directly impacts inflation primarily through automotive fuel prices, and indirectly through transport costs and where oil is used as an input in manufacturing processes. Changes in crude oil prices generally have a lagged impact on retail fuel prices due to the delay between purchasing, transporting and selling fuel to retailers. The average unleaded petrol price increased by 6.0percent (8.9cents perlitre) in the Territory in 2012, compared with an increase of 2.3percent (3.3centsperlitre) nationally (Chart 6.5). Higher growth in prices in the Territory is likely to be due to less retail competition compared with nationally and especially in the major capital cities. RHS: right-hand side; LHS: left-hand side Source: Australian Automobile Association; RBA; ABARES Outlook Year-on-Year Change (%)1 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f % % % % Darwin CPI 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 f: forecast 1 Calendar year Source: Department of Treasury and Finance Chart 6.5: Unleaded Retail Petrol and Crude Oil Prices 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Tapis crude price in Australian cents per litre (LHS) 8 capitals weighted average unleaded petrol (RHS) Darwin unleaded petrol (RHS) Australian cents per litre Australian cents per litre Calendar year Table 6.2: Consumer Price Index Forecasts, Darwin 20132016
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