Assessment of the Jabiluka Project : report of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee
Johnston, A.; Prendergast, J. B.; Bridgewater, Peter
E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Supervising Scientist Report; 138
Alligator Rivers Region
Main report--Appendix 2 of the Main Report. Submission to the Mission of the World Heritage Committee by some Australian Scientists ... --Attachment A. Johnston A. and Needham S. 1999. Protection of the environment near the Ranger uranium mine--Attachment B. Bureau of Meteorology 1999. Hydrometeorological analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment C. Jones, R.N., Hennessy, K.J. and Abbs, D.J. 1999. Climate change analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment D. Chiew, F and Wang, Q.J. 1999. Hydrological anaysis relevant to surface water storage at Jabiluka--Attachment E. Kalf, F. and Dudgeon, C. 1999. Analysis of long term groundwater dispersal of contaminants from proposed Jabiluka mine tailings repositories--Appendix 2 of Attachment E. Simulation of leaching on non-reactive and radionuclide contaminants from proposed Jabiluka silo banks.
Uranium mill tailings - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Alligator Rivers Region; Environmental impact analysis - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Uranium mines and mining - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Jabiluka - Environmental aspects
Supervising Scientist Report; 138
1 volume (various pagings) : illustrations, maps
https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462403; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462400; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462405; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462406; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462408; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462409; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462411
37 incorporated in Slab models, not in the more realistic coupled ocean models. The report identified this as the next step required for climate change modelling in northern Australia. Thus, the response by ERA that greenhouse induced changes were not expected to be significant for hydrological modelling over the next 30 years has some justification because all of the coupled ocean models, which are considered to be more realistic, predicted a reduction in Wet season rainfall. However, until regional climate models are incorporated into the global climate models, this conclusion should be considered preliminary. Figure 4.4.1 Cusum plot for the annual rainfall records at Oenpelli showing low average rainfall from 19321952 and high average rainfall from 19701984 The above discussion refers only to greenhouse induced change in climate and does not include decadal-scale change due to natural climatic variability. Indeed, the methods used in analysing past data to test for greenhouse induced change involve the specific removal of decadal-scale trends from the record. In this case, decadal-scale change must be separately examined (Jones at al 1999). It was noted in section 3.2.1 above that the Supervising Scientist (Carter 1990) used a cusum technique to examine long-term cycles or trends in the mean annual rainfall at a number of meteorological stations in the Northern Territory using rainfall records up to 1988. This analysis revealed that the period between the mid-1960s until the mid-1980s was one of significantly higher average rainfall than the long term mean. This conclusion was valid for the stations at Darwin, Oenpelli, Pine Creek and Katherine. The cusum analysis for the Oenpelli data set, including rainfall records from 19911998, is shown in figure 4.4.1. It can be shown (eg Mittag & Rinne 1993) that the gradient of the cusum graph at time t is the difference between the mean at that time and the long-term mean. The data in figure 4.4.1, therefore, show that, at Oenpelli, there have been two extended periods in the past 87 years during which the mean annual rainfall for the period has been significantly different from the long-term mean annual rainfall. From 19321952, the mean rainfall was about 1220 mm, lower than the long-term mean by about 13%. From 19701984 the mean rainfall was about 1600 mm, higher than the long-term mean by about 15%. It is clear that such decadal-scale variation in mean rainfall could have a significant impact on Cusum Plot for Oenpelli Year 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 C us um ( m m ) -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
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