Assessment of the Jabiluka Project : report of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee
Johnston, A.; Prendergast, J. B.; Bridgewater, Peter
E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Supervising Scientist Report; 138
Alligator Rivers Region
Main report--Appendix 2 of the Main Report. Submission to the Mission of the World Heritage Committee by some Australian Scientists ... --Attachment A. Johnston A. and Needham S. 1999. Protection of the environment near the Ranger uranium mine--Attachment B. Bureau of Meteorology 1999. Hydrometeorological analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment C. Jones, R.N., Hennessy, K.J. and Abbs, D.J. 1999. Climate change analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment D. Chiew, F and Wang, Q.J. 1999. Hydrological anaysis relevant to surface water storage at Jabiluka--Attachment E. Kalf, F. and Dudgeon, C. 1999. Analysis of long term groundwater dispersal of contaminants from proposed Jabiluka mine tailings repositories--Appendix 2 of Attachment E. Simulation of leaching on non-reactive and radionuclide contaminants from proposed Jabiluka silo banks.
Uranium mill tailings - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Alligator Rivers Region; Environmental impact analysis - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Uranium mines and mining - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Jabiluka - Environmental aspects
Supervising Scientist Report; 138
1 volume (various pagings) : illustrations, maps
https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462403; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462400; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462405; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462406; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462408; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462409; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462411
38 hydrological modelling for the Jabiluka mine site and needs to be taken into account in the design of the water management system. The Supervising Scientist commissioned the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research to examine both greenhouse induced change and decadal-scale change as part of this review (Jones et al 1999, Attachment C). The results are presented in subsequent sections. 4.4.2 Climate change analysis for Jabiluka CSIRO Atmospheric Research currently simulates climate change using the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled Global Climate Model and the DARLAM Regional Climate Model. In the current review, three experiments were analysed by Jones et al (1999) using these models. In two experiments, the CSIRO coupled ocean-atmosphere model was integrated from 1881 to 2100 with a gradually increasing CO2 concentration equivalent to the forcing produced by all greenhouse gases in the mid case IS92a emission scenario (IPCC 1996). (Definitions of terms used are given in Jones et al (1999).) One simulation also incorporates the direct effects of atmospheric sulphate aerosol (the indirect effects, or atmospheric feedbacks, are omitted) which has a cooling effect. The regional climate model, DARLAM, with a finer spatial resolution of 125 km, was nested in the CSIRO Mark 2 greenhouse-gas-only simulation in order to provide higher resolution data. Results from three GCMs from other modelling groups obtained from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre have also been used in the analysis. The models are summarised in table 4.4.1. Table 4.4.1 Model runs used to produce the regional scenarios presented in this report Centre Model Emission Scenario Features Years CSIRO, Australia1 Mk2 IS92a equivalent CO2 No sulphates, GM ocean 18812100 CSIRO, Australia Mk2 with sulphates IS92a equivalent CO2 Sulphates, GM ocean 18812100 CSIRO, Australia2 DARLAM 125 km IS92a equivalent CO2 Nested in CSIRO Mk2 19612100 DKRZ, Germany3 ECHAM4/OPYC3 IS92a No sulphates 18602099 Hadley Centre, UK4 HADCM2 1% CO2 pa No sulphates 18612100 Canadian CCMA5 CGCM1 1% CO2 pa No sulphates 19002100 1Gordon & OFarrell (1996), 2McGregor & Katzfey (1998), 3DKRZ-Model User Support Group (1992), Oberhuber (1992), 4Cullen (1993), 5Flato et al (submitted) Mean temperature increase at Jabiluka Global warming projections from the IPCC (1996) incorporate uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission rates and climate sensitivity. The contributing emission rates are applied through the IS92af emission scenarios. These scenarios incorporate the major greenhouse gases, including CO2, CH4, N2O and halogenated compounds, and sulphate aerosols which lead to cooling. Global warming projections also incorporate uncertainties due to climate sensitivity, ranging from 1.54.5C at 2CO2. The resulting range of projected global warming for 2030 is 0.40.8C (IPCC 1996). The models reproduce patterns of regional temperature reasonably well when grid box resolution is taken into account. The pattern of warming in each model shows greater changes inland than on the coast because the land heats faster than the ocean. This creates a gradient of warming from the ocean which usually warms less than the rate of global warming and the land which warms faster. To create a standard comparison for each model, temperature change per degree of global warming was regridded from the original model grid network and averaged over a 22 box, with the coordinates of 11.513.5S and 132134E, centred over Jabiluka. These results reflect the buffering effect of the Arafura Sea on
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