Assessment of the Jabiluka Project : report of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee
Johnston, A.; Prendergast, J. B.; Bridgewater, Peter
E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Supervising Scientist Report; 138
Alligator Rivers Region
Main report--Appendix 2 of the Main Report. Submission to the Mission of the World Heritage Committee by some Australian Scientists ... --Attachment A. Johnston A. and Needham S. 1999. Protection of the environment near the Ranger uranium mine--Attachment B. Bureau of Meteorology 1999. Hydrometeorological analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment C. Jones, R.N., Hennessy, K.J. and Abbs, D.J. 1999. Climate change analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment D. Chiew, F and Wang, Q.J. 1999. Hydrological anaysis relevant to surface water storage at Jabiluka--Attachment E. Kalf, F. and Dudgeon, C. 1999. Analysis of long term groundwater dispersal of contaminants from proposed Jabiluka mine tailings repositories--Appendix 2 of Attachment E. Simulation of leaching on non-reactive and radionuclide contaminants from proposed Jabiluka silo banks.
Uranium mill tailings - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Alligator Rivers Region; Environmental impact analysis - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Uranium mines and mining - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Jabiluka - Environmental aspects
Supervising Scientist Report; 138
1 volume (various pagings) : illustrations, maps
https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462403; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462400; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462405; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462406; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462408; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462409; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462411
39 projected temperature in the Jabiluka Region, limiting local warming at, or just below, the level of global warming. They are presented in table 4.4.2 Table 4.4.2 Temperature change per degree global of warming from six climate models averaged over the Jabiluka region (11.513.5S and 132134E) on an annual basis Change per degree of global warming DARLAM 125 CSIRO Mark2 (GHG only) CSIRO Mark2 (sulphates) DKRZ Hadley Centre Canadian CCMA Annual average 0.86 0.89 0.92 1.01 0.93 1.00 Using the projected global warming of 0.40.8C by 2030, the projected temperature increase in the region of Jabiluka is in the range 0.350.8 (rounded to the nearest 0.05C) from the results in table 4.4.2. Greenhouse induced change in mean annual rainfall The output of each Global Climate Model listed in table 4.4.1 has been analysed by Jones et al (1999) to create regional projections of mean annual rainfall in the region over the next 30 years. The results for the Wet and Dry seasons are presented in table 4.4.3. Detailed projections on a monthly basis are given in Jones at al (1999). As shown in table 4.4.3, the largest increase in the monsoon season, November to April, is 1% per degree of global warming, with decreases of up to 8%. The Dry season produced much more variable results ranging from an increase of 8% to a decrease of over 60%. These changes are less important for annual rainfall than those for the Wet season, due to the relatively low average rainfall that occurs during the Dry season. Using the projected global temperature change in 2030, 0.40.8C, these data indicate a range of change for the Wet season rainfall of +1% to -6% by 2030. Thus, the latest modelling, which includes the nesting of a regional climate model into the ocean coupled global climate model, confirms the expectation that any increase in Wet season average rainfall due to greenhouse warming is likely to be small (1%). The confidence invested in this range consists of the confidence in the range of global warming and the ability of the GCMs to simulate the Australian monsoon. The confidence in the range of global warming is high while for rainfall in the Australian monsoon it is low. Although there are regions where the direction of possible rainfall change can be assessed as fairly robust (the central eastern Pacific Ocean), the results for northern Australia show no such consistency. Table 4.4.3 Percentage change per degree global warming from six climate models averaged over 11 15S and 130.5135.5E for each month and the half-yearly periods, May to October and November to April Period DARLAM 125 CSIRO Mark2 (GHG only) CSIRO Mark2 (sulphates) DKRZ Hadley Centre Canadian CCMA May to Oct 8 5 4 -63 -15 -4 Nov to Apr 1 1 1 -3 -8 0 Long-term trends on mean annual rainfall Jones et al (1999) analysed the Oenpelli rainfall record to determine historical rainfall trends and rainfall variability. The results are presented in figure 4.4.2. Significant decadal-scale
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