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Assessment of the Jabiluka Project : report of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee



Assessment of the Jabiluka Project : report of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee


Johnston, A.; Prendergast, J. B.; Bridgewater, Peter


E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Supervising Scientist Report; 138




Alligator Rivers Region

Table of contents

Main report--Appendix 2 of the Main Report. Submission to the Mission of the World Heritage Committee by some Australian Scientists ... --Attachment A. Johnston A. and Needham S. 1999. Protection of the environment near the Ranger uranium mine--Attachment B. Bureau of Meteorology 1999. Hydrometeorological analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment C. Jones, R.N., Hennessy, K.J. and Abbs, D.J. 1999. Climate change analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment D. Chiew, F and Wang, Q.J. 1999. Hydrological anaysis relevant to surface water storage at Jabiluka--Attachment E. Kalf, F. and Dudgeon, C. 1999. Analysis of long term groundwater dispersal of contaminants from proposed Jabiluka mine tailings repositories--Appendix 2 of Attachment E. Simulation of leaching on non-reactive and radionuclide contaminants from proposed Jabiluka silo banks.




Uranium mill tailings - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Alligator Rivers Region; Environmental impact analysis - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Uranium mines and mining - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Jabiluka - Environmental aspects

Publisher name

Environment Australia

Place of publication

Canberra (A.C.T.)


Supervising Scientist Report; 138


1 volume (various pagings) : illustrations, maps

File type






Copyright owner

Environment Australia



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Citation address


Related items

https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462403; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462400; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462405; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462406; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462408; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462409; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462411

Page content

40 variability is demonstrated by the 10-year moving average and a trend of 1.7 mm pa that is not statistically significant. Figure 4.4.2 Average annual rainfall from Oenpelli 19111997, showing a 10-year moving average and linear trend of 1.7 mm pa One of the issues posed by climate change when considering a historical record is one of nonstationarity, eg that the mean is not fixed over the life of a time series. This may already be the case with global temperatures, although the debate as to whether global temperature has exceeded the rate of natural variability is still continuing. With the Oenpelli rainfall record, there is a historical trend, but it is statistically non-significant and lies well within historical variability. However, by assuming the persistence of this trend and imposing the historical rate of trend of 1.7 mm pa for 30 years (ie from 2000 to 2030) there is an increase of 4% over the historical mean. As the persistence of historical trends is very possible (with or without a component of climate change), an increase of 4% in annual rainfall by 2030 is assumed to be a plausible scenario. This is discussed further below. Decadal scale variation in the mean rainfall The effect of decadal variability was assessed by detrending the series (ie removal of the 1.7 mm per annum trend) and standardising the 10 year running mean. Its highest and lowest points as a proportion of the mean were 15% over the historical period, so this was chosen as the limit of decadal variability. This result is, as expected, similar to that derived from the cusum approach outlined in section 4.4.1. While the decadal scale variation in the mean rainfall is significant and needs to be properly taken into account in design of the water management system, its presence in the historical record implies that, to some extent at least, it is contributing to the mean and the standard deviation of the long-term record. It is, therefore, inherent in the prediction of extreme events derived from that record, for example the 1:10,000 AEP rainfall, and it will also be contributing to the distribution used to generate stochastic rainfall series (see next chapter) in the modelling of the Jabiluka water management system. The extent to which the decadalscale variation is taken into account in these stochastically generated rainfall series needs to be assessed before considering the incorporation of decadal-scale variation as a component of climate change. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 Year A nn ua l R ai nf al l ( m m )

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