Assessment of the Jabiluka Project : report of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee
Johnston, A.; Prendergast, J. B.; Bridgewater, Peter
E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Supervising Scientist Report; 138
Alligator Rivers Region
Main report--Appendix 2 of the Main Report. Submission to the Mission of the World Heritage Committee by some Australian Scientists ... --Attachment A. Johnston A. and Needham S. 1999. Protection of the environment near the Ranger uranium mine--Attachment B. Bureau of Meteorology 1999. Hydrometeorological analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment C. Jones, R.N., Hennessy, K.J. and Abbs, D.J. 1999. Climate change analysis relevant to Jabiluka--Attachment D. Chiew, F and Wang, Q.J. 1999. Hydrological anaysis relevant to surface water storage at Jabiluka--Attachment E. Kalf, F. and Dudgeon, C. 1999. Analysis of long term groundwater dispersal of contaminants from proposed Jabiluka mine tailings repositories--Appendix 2 of Attachment E. Simulation of leaching on non-reactive and radionuclide contaminants from proposed Jabiluka silo banks.
Uranium mill tailings - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Alligator Rivers Region; Environmental impact analysis - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Uranium mines and mining - Environmental aspects - Northern Territory - Jabiluka; Jabiluka - Environmental aspects
Supervising Scientist Report; 138
1 volume (various pagings) : illustrations, maps
https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462403; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462400; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462405; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462406; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462408; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462409; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/462411
4 Similarly, water retention structures will be evaporated to dryness and rehabilitated at the cessation of mining. The strongly worded criticism in Wasson et al (1998) that the proponent has assumed stationarity of climate over a period of 10,000 years is, therefore, without foundation. Citing this and information on significantly different climate regimes in the region in the past few thousand years as evidence that the integrity of Kakadu cannot be guaranteed with any probability is unjustified. Probable maximum precipitation events The 6-minute PMP intensity estimate adopted by ERA for the Jabiluka project is approximately 20% lower than the value recommended by the Bureau of Meteorology. It is recommended that the Bureau value be used in the detailed design of the Jabiluka project. A full set of PMP values appropriate for Jabiluka is provided in this report. It is recommended that these values be used, where appropriate, in the detailed design of the Jabiluka project. Effect of climate change on hydrological modelling As recommended previously by the Supervising Scientist, it is important that possible or likely variations in climate over the next 30 years are properly taken into account in the detailed design of the water management system at Jabiluka. This should include nongreenhouse effects such as periodic changes in the mean annual rainfall that occur in the past meteorological record. There is substantial agreement in the predictions of the various climate change models on the projected temperature increase in the region of Jabiluka by the year 2030. The increase is expected to be in the range 0.350.8C. There is substantial agreement in the predictions of the various climate change models, including models that incorporate regional climate modelling, on the likely change in the Wet season rainfall in the region of Jabiluka. The predictions range from +1% to -6% by 2030. These models confirm previous expectations that any increase in Wet season average rainfall due to global warming is likely to be small (1%). Decadal scale variation is the most significant climate change effect for hydrological modelling of the Jabiluka project. The present review confirms the earlier analysis of the Supervising Scientist that this effect could be as large as 15% over the next 30 years. However, this review has established that stochastic rainfall series modelling, based upon the Oenpelli rainfall record, fully accounts for decadal scale variability and that there is no need to include this effect explicitly in a climate change scenario. Analysis of the historical rainfall record at Oenpelli reveals an upward trend of 1.7 mm per annum in the mean annual rainfall that may be attributed to global warming and which should be added to the model predictions. The observed trend is not statistically significant but the adoption of a precautionary approach implies that the significance of this possible trend should be assessed in hydrological modelling of the Jabiluka project. However, stochastic rainfall series modelling, based upon the Oenpelli rainfall record, also exhibits a similar trend and it is concluded that there is no need to include this effect explicitly in a climate change scenario. As in previous studies, this review has found that the intensity of extreme storm events is likely to increase despite the fact that there is an overall decrease in the annual rainfall.