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Annual power system review : December 2007



Annual power system review : December 2007


Power system review; Reports; PublicationNT




Cover title.; Made available via the Publications (Legal Deposit) Act 2004 (NT).




Electric utilities -- Northern Territory -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Northern Territory -- Periodicals

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Northern Territory. Utilities Commission

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Northern Territory. Utilities Commission

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Page 4 2007 Power System Review December 2007 Utilities Commission Generation capacity in the medium term 2.8 The Commission has assessed the adequacy of generation capacity over the 2007-08 to 2010-11 period by comparing a baseline projection of capacity with its forecast of peak demand in each of the three regulated systems, Darwin-Katherine, Alice Springs and Tennant Creek. Demand forecasts 2.9 Demand has been forecast primarily by considering economic and demographic conditions. Information on new projects that add significantly to demand has been included where the likelihood of commencement is high. 2.10 Economic and demographic conditions in the NT are currently strong and the outlook remains robust over the medium term, although at lower levels of growth than the last three years. For the Territory as a whole, output, employment and total population are forecast to record average growth rates of 4%, 2% and 1.5% respectively per annum. 2.11 Consumption and peak demand are forecast to increase by an average of 3% per annum (baseline growth) in the Darwin-Katherine system. The inclusion of demand expected from the Compass Browns Oxide Project and the BOC Helium Plant increases the forecast growth in demand and consumption to an average of 3.9% per annum. Consumption and peak demand are forecast to increase by an average of 2% in the Alice Springs system and 1% in the Tennant Creek system. Capacity projections 2.12 Baseline capacity has been projected by adjusting existing capacity for additions and retirements that are considered to be firm either announced or scheduled for the near term. This is comparable with the approach taken by the National Electricity Market Management Company (NEMMCO) in developing its annual Statement of Opportunities. It has the advantage of avoiding assessments of the likelihood of uncommitted projects proceeding. 2.13 Given the current structure of the NT power market, it is likely that Power and Water is the only party actively planning to invest in new capacity. If the Commission were to include Power and Waters long term investment plans in the analysis it may inadvertently create the impression that additions to capacity are reserved for Power and Water. 2.14 This is not the case. The NT power market is open to investment from any source that meets the licence criteria. The Commission makes no assumption as to who will build the new capacity that its analysis indicates is required. The Commissions role is to provide information to all interested parties on the prospective supply-demand balance, to facilitate efficient investment from whatever source and to support the development of a competitive market. Darwin-Katherine regulated system 2.15 For the Darwin-Katherine regulated system, demand is comfortably met for the entire period at both the N-1 and N-2 standards. This assessment is subject to the qualification that the availability of the first two units at Weddell will be as currently advised by Power and Water (40MW in 2007-08 and 40MW in 2008-09). Alice Springs regulated system 2.16 The assessment of capacity adequacy for the Alice Springs system over the medium term depends on the reserve standard that is applied.

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