Territory Stories

Miscellaneous Correspondence and Data on Alice Springs Flooding 1986

Details:

Title

Miscellaneous Correspondence and Data on Alice Springs Flooding 1986

Creator

Hamlyn-Harris, D.; Galton, R. P.; Charrington, Rowan; Freyling, Ron

Collection

E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Report no. 33/1986

Date

1986-04-01

Notes

Date:1986-04

Language

English

Publisher name

Northern Territory Government

Place of publication

Alice Springs

Series

Report no. 33/1986

File type

application/pdf

Use

Attribution International 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)

Copyright owner

Northern Territory Government

License

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Parent handle

https://hdl.handle.net/10070/229637

Citation address

https://hdl.handle.net/10070/672763

Page content

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 7 Mr. Paige Yes, for some people, not the river itself but for protecting important buildings, in fact what we would start to do is talk to people like the Health Department. Looking at their spare generator we would water proof the shed that it is in and then if you have some sand bags ready you could store them for ever and a day, they can be quickly moved into position, so I guess the best way to talk about sand bags is to do it on a building by building basis, and if some private homes are interested in doing that, we will give them some advice. Mr. Mitchell The decision that needs to be made earlier is not so much what we have to do, but what is the policy going to be? Do we aim for the very worse possible situation and we get to point 1 on the graph, or aim somewhere in between, Or the least possible, it realy depends on how conservative an effort this group is prepared to make. Mr. Paige When we get to this point here, we will be putting out three scenarios to emergency services. We will be trying to make the best prediction. We look like heading towards a 1-100 as to opposed to a 1-50 flow. That is the basis, and we can probably give some possibility this is the most probable. The way the information comes out of us is, we are just saying that at the moment we are heading for a 1-20 or heading for a 1-50. Mr. Mitchell But we could be wrong! Mr. paige In the next half hour we would get a better estimate. Mr. Mitchell The question I am asking is whether we should be conservative with regards to your forecast as being absolutely maximum or whether we say we are going to aim for a 1-100 anyway, can we consider it every time, Anything greater than a 1-20 could be a 1-100 by so much a probability. Mr. Paige I think there is some merit in that. First of all, I think you should treat our estimates as under-estimates in the sense that we are take no account for local flooding or of the Charles. Secondly, once that, given that the 1983 flood was say 1-15, a small event, once you get to a 1-20 it has realy and truly broken the banks of the river, we have only got an hour or so to say that it is not going to be a 1-20, it is going to be a 1-100, so the best response at that stage will be, "Let's go for a 1-100"