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Alice Springs recreational dam hydrology report project 6



Alice Springs recreational dam hydrology report project 6


Jackson, D.; Paige, D.


E-Publications; E-Books; PublicationNT; Report no. 12/1979







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Northern Territory Government

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Report no. 12/1979

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Attribution International 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)

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Northern Territory Government



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Technical Report WRD79012 Viewed at 00:02:46 on 18/02/2010 Page 122 of 153. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 24 4.5 Gould Analysis As an independent check on the dam simulation model, a programme was written for Goulds Probability Matrix Method, as modified by McMahon and Mein (1978) to account for monthly rather than annual failures. The method assumes an annual serial correlation of zero, and is independent of the historical sequencing of flows and initial reservoir conditions. ~he programme allows for monthly variations in qraft and evaporation. Dead storage can be defined as a fraction of reservoir capacity. Probability of failure can be calculated either at steady state or as a time dependent function of the starting conditions. Calculated steady state probabilities (Table 9) fitted the duration curves for percent of time exceeded (Figure 11,12 and 13) very closely. Transient failure probabilities assuming the reservoir is initially empty are also shown' in Table 9. Table 9 PROBABILITY OF AREA BEING GREATER THAN INDICATED SIZE WITH PRIMARY SPILLWAY AT 594M AND A DRAFT OF .1.0 Mm'/YEAR. Probability in Percentage. 'fea.rs after 100 ha Construction 1 2 3 59 61 61 Steady State 61 90ha 71 79 79 79 80 ha 74 92 93 93 70ha 74 95 97 97

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