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Territory economic review



Territory economic review


NT Treasury, Economic Analysis Division


Territory economic review; Department of Treasury and Finance newsletters; PublicationNT; E-Journals




Date:2001-09; Made available via the Publications (Legal Deposit) Act 2004 (NT).; This publication contains may contain links to external sites. These external sites may no longer be active.




Northern Territory -- Economic conditions -- Periodicals

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Northern Territory Government

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Northern Territorty Government

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SEPTEMBER 2001 6 TERRITORY ECONOMIC REVIEW www.nt.gov.au/ntt/economic POPULATION PROJECTIONS Small area population projections released The ABS, in conjunction with the Northern Territory Government, recently released population projections for small area regions throughout the Territory. The projections for each area are listed by year (through to 2021) and also by age and by sex. The geographic coverage includes all urban centres (down to suburbs in the case of Darwin and Alice Springs), with regional totals for sparsely settled areas. The publication follows standard ABS geographic classifications: Statistical Divisions; Statistical Subdivisions; Statistical Local Areas and Local Government Areas. based on scenarios - not forecasts The projections are based on three alternative scenarios for population growth (low, medium and high) reflecting various rates of fertility and mortality, and overseas and interstate migration. It is important to note that they are medium term projections to assist in investment and planning decisions, but do not predict likely short-term growth rates or fluctuations. As such, they should not be seen as forecasts. Instead, they present possible average growth rates in the estimated resident population for each scenario. The use of the high scenario could still be seen as broadly appropriate for periods of high economic activity, such as that expected during the construction of the railway, and onshore gas developments. The table below presents summary results for major Territory towns and regions. For further information and data, see Population Projections (Northern Territory), ABS Catalogue Number 3222.7, available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 1999 Towns/areas: Estimated Resident Population High Scenario (A) Low Scenario (C) Absolute Change % Change Absolute Change % Change Darwin City 68 407 83 003 60 506 14 596 21.3 - 7 901 - 11.5 Palmerston/East Arm 19 645 42 020 36 563 22 375 113.9 16 918 86.1 Litchfield Shire (incl. Weddell) 15 400 59 526 29 441 44 126 286.5 14 041 91.2 Weddell 0 27 671 2 896 27 671 n/a 2 896 n/a Subtotal: Darwin Region 103 452 184 549 126 510 81 097 78.4 23 058 22.3 Katherine 9 925 13 791 11 426 3 866 39.0 1 501 15.1 Tennant Creek 3 934 5 203 4 070 1 269 32.3 136 3.5 Alice Springs 25 536 30 908 25 170 5 372 21.0 - 366 - 1.4 TOTAL: Northern Territory 192 724 308 660 227 697 115 936 60.2 34 973 18.1 2021 Low Scenario (C) High Scenario (A) INFLATION AND WAGES Consumer Price Index -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02f -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Darwin (quarterly) 8 Capitals (quarterly) Darwin (through the year) 8 Capitals (through the year) Year ended June percent percent Source: NT Treasury, ABS data Inflation up, but no threat at present Darwins Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.1 per cent in the June quarter 2001, partly reflecting a correction to the abnormally low figure recorded in the March quarter (0.1 per cent). Darwins annual headline inflation rate was 5.2 per cent. Nationally, the quarterly increase was 0.8 per cent with an annual rate of 6.0 per cent. The larger than expected June quarter rise was fuelled by businesses rebuilding margins. Margins have been eroded over the past year as weak consumer confidence and demand resulted in businesses absorbing cost increases to maintain sales and turnover. Cost pressures that have impacted upon margins have stemmed from higher energy prices, the depreciation in the Australian dollar and GST-related price increases. Price rises were kept in check over most of the financial year by competitive pressures, price monitoring and weaker domestic demand which constrained businesses ability to pass on higher input costs. Territory below the national rate Inflation in Darwin generally moves with national price inflation, suggesting that price movements are largely driven by national factors. The major determinants of inflation are labour costs, productivity growth, domestic demand, import prices and the level of competition in the economy. Other factors include one-off impacts such as the introduction of the GST, the value of the Australian dollar, which affects the price of imports, oil price increases caused by global supply and demand conditions, and the stage of the business cycle. Darwins CPI increased by 5.2 per cent in 2000-01 compared to 2.4 per cent in 1999-00. The introduction of the new tax system led to a major one-off spike in price inflation, the bulk of which occurred in the September quarter 2000. Higher petrol prices also

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