Annual Report 2014/2015 Utilities Commission
Tabled paper 1571
Tabled Papers for 12th Assembly 2012 - 2016; Tabled Papers; ParliamentNT
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25 The Commission projected average system-wide maximum demand growth to be 1.6 per cent for Darwin-Katherine, 1.0 per cent for Alice Springs and 1.7 per cent for Tennant Creek per annum over the 10-year review period. The number of households with rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations was expected to increase uniformly over the next 10 years. By 2023-24, it was projected that households with rooftop solar PV installations would increase to 24.4 per cent in the Darwin-Katherine power system, 35.6 per cent in the Alice Springs power system and 26.6 per cent in Tennant Creek power system. Generation Outlook Power and Water adopted an N-3 (that is, the unavailability of the three largest generating units) planning criterion for the Darwin-Katherine power system as a temporary measure to allow for the life extension work at Channel Island power station. The planning criterion of N-2 and N were adopted for Alice Springs and Tennant Creek, respectively. The Commission noted both the Darwin-Katherine and Alice Springs power systems had a high level of generation capacity to 2023-24, assuming a low 2 per cent forced outage rate for generators (92 per cent overall availability). The Tennant Creek power system almost met its standard with reliance on diesel generation (assuming no loss of gas supply) for the 10-year review period. Although generation capacity across the three regions remained strong, generation reliability remained poor and declined in 2013-14. There were 11 generation outages resulting in load shedding during 2013-14 in the Darwin-Katherine power system, three in Alice Springs and one in Tennant Creek. Fuel Supply The 2013-14 PSR found that the Territory has sufficient fuel supply for the 10-year review period. Power and Waters annual contract quantity from the Blacktip gas field is in excess of its actual gas requirements for the review period. An additional INPEX LNG back-up arrangement from 2017 will materially improve security of gas supply to the Territory. The Commission found that the emergency management of the 11 September 2014 incident, where there was a gas supply failure following an electrical fault at the Blacktip gas platform, did not produce the most effective outcomes because there was not a process that enabled free flow of live information between all key stakeholders. Network Outlook The 2013-14 PSR found that there is sufficient network capacity to meet future demand to 2023-24 subject to a number of capacity concerns, notably: six feeders exceeding 100 per cent utilisation rates during periods of maximum demand, with the number of feeders experiencing 100 per cent utilisation expected to increase by 2018; poor performance of the 132kV Channel Island to Hudson Creek line and/or its protection systems; and
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