Northern Territory budget papers 2018-19
2018/19 Budget papers
Northern Territory. Department of Treasury and Finance
Northern Territory budget papers; Reports; PublicationNT
Made available via the Publications (Legal Deposit) Act 2004 (NT).
Appropriations and expenditures; Periodicals; Budget; Finance, Public
Northern Territory Government
Attribution International 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
Northern Territory Government
https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810684 [2018-19-BP1-Speech-and-Appropriation-Bill]; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810685 [BP2 Budget Strategy and Outlook 2018-19]; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810686 [BP3 Agency Budget Statements 2018-19]; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810687 [BP4 The Infrastructure Program 2018-19]; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810688 [Budget Overview 2018-19]; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810690 [Northern Territory Economy Overview 2018-19]; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810691 [Regional Highlights 2018/19]
https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810685; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810686; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810687; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810688; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810689; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810691; https://hdl.handle.net/10070/810684
5 Northern Territory Economy Overview The Territorys economic growth over the forecast period continues to reflect a transition from record levels of private investment, towards exportdriven growth (Chart 3). This transition will be largely dominated by activity related to the Ichthys LNG project. As construction of the Ichthys LNG project is completed and the plant commences production in 2018, growth in Territory domestic economic activity will moderate further. However, commencement of the production phase will benefit the economy significantly due to a boost in LNG, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and condensate exports beginning in 201819, reaching full export capacity in 201920 at levels expected to be sustained throughout the projects 40year life. As a consequence, Territory GSP is forecast to grow moderately over 201718 and 201819, before declining in 201920, largely reflecting declines in business investment as the Ichthys LNG project completes its construction and commissioning phase. This will be partly offset by a significant improvement (over 375 per cent) in net exports over 201819 and 201920, from 201718 (Chart 4). However, given the significant scale of the project, any changes to the construction completion, commissioning timing or initial level of exports from the Ichthys LNG project will have a material impact on the Territorys annual economic growth forecasts over the 201718 to 201920 period. Public investment from the Territory Governments $1.45 billion infrastructure spend in 201819, combined with Commonwealth defence capital works projects, is expected to partially offset declining private investment over the same period. Economic growth in the outer years is likely to be supported by the stabilisation of business investment and net exports, as well as moderate growth in consumption from both the household and public sectors. Growth over 202021 and 202122 is forecast to strengthen from 2.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent, as projects currently in the pipeline begin to contribute to the economy. This trend is in line with forecasts for the Territorys population and employment in the outer years. Chart 4: Territory net exports1 e: estimate; f: forecast 1 Inflation adjusted. Source: ABS, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, Cat. No. 5220.0 Overall the Territory economy is expected to be over 50 per cent larger by 202122, at $28.0 billion in size, compared to 10 years ago. Prospective investment projects in the pipeline, including those with major project status, are not included in the above forecasts as they have not yet received final investment decisions. If realised, these projects, as well as the expansion of the onshore gas industry, have the potential to provide significant improvement to the Territorys economic growth over the forecast period. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18e 19f 20f 21f 22f Total exports Total imports Net exports Year ended June $B Forecast period
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